Business Trends newsletter April 11, 2008
Economic forecast for second half of 2008
Are we in a recession? How long will it last? What is the forecast for interest rates and inflation? Is credit going to get tighter? Will consumers start spending? When will housing recover?
Please join us for our Celebrate Success luncheon on Thursday, May 22 at the Cape Codder Resort and Spa. Our special program, in partnership with the Massachusetts Small Business Administration, will feature a prestigious panel of economists who will discuss these and other critical issues facing businesses during the second half of 2008.
Also, meet 10 successful businesses and organizations from across the state – recipients of the 2008 SBA Celebrate Success Awards, as well as the first Making a Difference winners, the Cape Cod Young Professionals.
To register for this event, please click here.
If you want to reserve a table of 10, please call Christine Parent at (508) 385-3811 by April 18.
Our panel, moderated by Geri Denterlein of Denterlein Worldwide, includes:
Steve Andrews, vice president in Sovereign Bank’s Capital Markets team, who brings more than 20 years experience in capital markets with such firms as Citibank, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley.
John W. Bitner is responsible for developing and implementing fixed income investment policy for Eastern Investment Advisors. He is also the bank’s chief economist, setting macroeconomic policy.
Lynn Elaine Browne is executive vice president and economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, part of the nation’s central bank.
Chad Moutray is chief economist for the Office of Advocacy of the U.S. Small Business Administration. The Office of Advocacy is the government’s source for research on small business issues.
Plymouth foreclosures cloud positive signs in home market
Plymouth County home sales rose again in March, compared to the previous month. But this slow, steady climb through the first quarter is muted by increased foreclosures, reports Plymouth County Register of Deeds John R. Buckley, Jr.
Plymouth County recorded 569 deeds in March, up from 469 in February and 444 in January. The number of refinances has also climbed steadily over the first quarter, with the number of mortgages rising from 1,839 in January to 2,141 in February and 2,482 last month.
Compared with the same period last year, last year, sales are down 14 percent, from 1,720 to 1,482, while mortgages have fallen 22 percent, from 8,272 to 6,462. “I do not think it is a surprise to anyone that we are not seeing the volume we saw last year,” Buckley explained. “But these gradual month-to-month increases through the first quarter are a positive sign in an uncertain market.”
Continuing to overshadow subtle positive signs in the market is the volume of foreclosure sales. Plymouth County recorded 142 foreclosure deeds in March, up from 94 the previous month. While the number of notices initiating new foreclosure proceedings dipped from 280 in February to 184 last month, the total number of 634 new foreclosure notices recorded through the first quarter remains on pace with, and is actually 1 percent higher than the 629 filed through the same period in 2007.
The good news: the impact of the foreclosures on the market, while by no means insignificant, has been much less dramatic in Plymouth County than in other regions. “While other areas of the country are seeing property values plummet, Plymouth County sale prices have only dipped 4 percent since this time last year,” Buckley noted.
A cold wind in March for Cape housing market
February showed some positive signs, but March blew a cold wind onto the Cape housing market. Barnstable County Register of Deeds, John F. Meade, reports that the volume of real estate sales in March 2008 was down 15.3 percent from the same month in 2007, while the total value of sales was down 22.4 percent from the previous year. The median individual property sale value was down 11.1 percent from the previous year. There was a 4.9 percent decrease in the volume of mortgage activity from March 2007 levels.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the numbers over the first three months of 2008 versus 2007:
2008 sales volume: 1,260
2007 sales volume: 1,339
2008 median sales price: $320,000.00
2007 median sales price: $349,000.00
2008 mortgage volume: 4,333
2007 mortgage volume: 4,990
Monthly median housing prices
Mar 2007: $349,000.00 +3%
Apr 2007: $340,000.00 -2.6%
May 2007: $325,000.00 -4.4%
June 2007: $338,000.00 +4%
July 2007: $345,500.00 +2.2%
Aug 2007: $355,000.00 +2.8%
Sep 2007: $387,500.00 +9.2%
Oct 2007: $345,000.00 -11%
Nov 2007: $330,000.00 +4.3%
Dec 2007: $329,000.00 -0.3%
Jan 2008: $323,000.00 -1.8%
Feb 2008: $327,450.00 +1.4%
Mar 2008: $310,000.00 -5.3%
Stampede to the exit … catastrophic losses pending
That’s a provocative way to catch your attention. But if you’re like most private business owners, you haven’t given transition planning much formal thought. Cape Business is sponsoring with ROCG~Shepherd & Goldstein and Delta Capital Group a series of workshops beginning this spring to illustrate why you need to think seriously about this important issue now.
The workshops are designed for attorneys, accountants and financial advisers to small businesses – as well as businesses themselves.
They will explain how a continued lack of succession planning is bringing business owners closer and closer to an impending crisis timeline – and what action is required to avoid it. “Owners face potential catastrophic losses as they look to cash out of their business or transfer their business ownership,” says Terence Shepherd, who will guide the workshop. Shepherd has headlined our Business Connect conference in the past.
In a recent survey, it was found that only 1 in 10 owners got a price for their business anywhere close to what they wanted or expected. Additionally, less than 40 percent said they successfully transitioned their business. Lifestyle dreams, family legacies and philanthropic desires are all at stake.
We will be holding these seminars at local restaurants in the Mid- and Lower Cape, along with wine tastings. If you are interested in attending these free workshops, please contact us at glenn@capebusiness.net or (508) 385-3811 by April 22.
A snapshot of the economy
Each of us has a pretty good sense of the economy as it affects our own business. But as we face an uncertain 2008, here are some base numbers about the regional economy to keep in front of you. They come from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Some apply statewide; others apply more locally, but radiate out from the town of Barnstable on Cape Cod and Quincy in the South Shore.
In other words, these numbers do not necessarily apply to some outlying areas of both regions, such as Provincetown or Middleborough. Treat them only as a frame of reference.
Unemployment rate: 5.4 percent in January 2007 compared with 4.9 percent in January 2008 for the Barnstable region; 4.9 percent in January 2007 compared with 4.3 percent in 2008 for the Quincy area.
Statewide construction employment: Down from a seasonally adjusted 139,700 in January 2007 to 136,100 in January 2008.
Statewide financial activities employment: 225,800 in January 2007 to 224,000 in January 2008.
Statewide educational and health services employment: 618,200 in January 2007 to 632,400 in January 2008.
Statewide leisure and hospitality employment: 302,900 in January 2007 to 303,900 in January 2008.
The average number of hours employees worked dropped in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont from January 2007 to January 2008, but rose nearly one hour in Massachusetts. Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose more in Massachusetts than in any other New England state – more than 7 percent in the 12 months between January 2007 and January 2008. That compares with a national increase of about 3 percent.
On the housing front, January total housing permits for the Barnstable region reached 69 in January, 2006; 59 in January, 2007 and 60 in January 2008. For the Quincy area, those numbers were; 877 for January, 2006; 1,511 for January 2007; and only 400 for January 2008.
Getting your press release seen by businesses – Plug In – Get Connected
Since we began publishing more than three years ago, we have worked hard to find ways for businesses to publicize their companies – from new hires to new products and services.
Beginning later this month, you will be able to publish all your press releases in your own directory at BusinessConnector.biz. It is among a suite of powerful tools designed to help you generate leads and inform other businesses about news, events, job openings, special promotions, sales and incentives. You can post photos, and even develop your own blog or online video.
We will be providing a half-price annual membership for the first 500 charter companies, who can set up their accounts easily online and begin publishing immediately. Your information can be found not only at your own site, but will be published on our home page. In addition, we will capture your information and share it in our new BusinessConnector newsletter that will be emailed weekly only to members.
To be contacted when the site goes live, please go to BusinessConnector.biz and register your e-mail address. If you would like a sneak preview of the Business Connector site, please contact Glenn at glenn@capebusiness.net or Bob at bob@capebusiness.net.
Come see what's in bloom in Plymouth County
Spring is finally here! Plymouth County Business is hosting an event – along with the Hanover and Pembroke chambers of commerce – to celebrate what's blooming in the community.
Come network at Snow and Jones and enjoy refreshments, hors d'oeuvres and live music. This event will be held April 23, from 5-7 p.m., at Snow and Jones Inc., 85 Accord Park Drive, Norwell.
Please RVSP by April 21 – call (508) 385-3811 or e-mail christine@capebusiness.net.
Marketing to baby boomers, second-home owners and women
These three presentations will be featured at the Business Connect 2008 conference slated for October 15 and 16. In addition, the business-to-business event will present workshops on green marketing and B2B on the Web.
We expect 100 companies as exhibitors and more than 1,000 attendees for the two-day event that tips off Wednesday night with a VIP preview of the marketplace.
For more information on sponsorship opportunities or registration, click here or contact East Coast Expos at (617) 680-1735 or businessconnect2008@capebusiness.net.
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