Q&A with … Peter Francese
What are the most prominent growth trends you see for the Cape?
From 2000 to 2006, growth in year-round Cape residents has virtually ceased, rising only by 2,600 people. More year-round residents are now moving away from the Cape than to here. The Cape has experienced 5,000 more deaths than births over the same six-year period. This occurs very rarely anywhere. It is almost a national record. Only 10 other counties around the nation have a greater number of deaths than births.
Where are we seeing the greatest population shifts by town on the Cape?
Most year-round-resident loss appears to be coming from the Mid-Cape towns. Two-thirds of all resident growth since 2000 has occurred in Falmouth or Mashpee. This is a big change from the 1990s, when all but three towns grew more than 1 percent a year.
The aging of the Cape is maybe the most prominent demographic story. Can you break down the numbers here?
The Cape is losing working-age adults, 35-44, and their children. The largest 10-year age group is 45-54, but nearly one in four residents are age 65-plus. The Cape median age is 45.7, with men at 44 and women at 47. This is among the highest median numbers in the country. In addition, the Cape is losing children at a faster rate than elsewhere in Massachusetts. At the same time, the Cape has above-average growth among young adults and those 75 and older. The loss of children and families age 35-44 will mean slower growth in retail sales.
What are the implications of these demographic trends?
Cape Cod’s significantly older-than-average-age profile creates a far greater imperative to build workforce housing than for most other counties in the state. But other incentives to encourage young people to stay may also be needed.
Let’s move from actual population to Cape Cod households. What is happening here?
The Cape has about 155,000 housing units, of which 80 percent are single-family dwellings. This means the Cape needs more rental housing for younger families who cannot afford or don’t need single-family homes. Only one fifth have any children compared with 30 percent regionwide. Nearly one in three households is one person; 60 percent of those one-person households are occupied by women, about half of whom are age 65 and older. The average Cape year-round household has only 2.2 people, versus 2.5 regionwide.
What are implications of these household trends?
The heavy reliance on property tax revenue from single-family units with so few occupants, many of whom are retired and with so few having any kids, means that annual increases in school spending is unsustainable. Almost every school district on the Cape has been increasing school taxes since 2000, while enrollment has been declining.
What about workforce and housing trends?
Home demand on the Cape has three drivers: workers, retirees and second-home buyers. After some growth earlier this decade, workforce growth on the Cape has ceased. If growth does not resume, it will negatively affect both tourism and home prices.
The Cape resident and homebuyer demography is becoming unbalanced. There may not be enough year-round workers or families with children to sustain Cape communities long term. A critical and urgent goal: rebalancing the Cape’s human ecology.
Published in Cape Business November/December 2007
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